The FPJ bomb in a populist lamp

Rizal's Simoun would be happy. Whether or not FPJ wins the presidency in May, he is a harbinger of disaster. FPJ is Simoun's bomb hidden in a populist lamp. If he is disqualified by the Supreme Court, his supporters will attempt to bring down the government. If he loses in May and there is even the slightest doubt about his defeat, destabilization attempts will intensify. If he wins, destabilization will follow in the wake of an economic collapse and an orgy of revenge by displaced Marcos and Erap forces.

Disaster can be averted only if enough of the forces for political and economic reform, - if those who mobilized for Edsa 1 and Edsa 2 - understand what is happening and work to prevent an FPJ victory. FPJ has to be 'defeated' before the May elections. This can be done only if the political meaning of the FPJ candidacy is exposed. FPJ can be 'defeated' before May 2004 only if we can break the debilitating hesitations which have effectively tied our hands behind our backs.

FPJ and the Populist Temptation

Why have we hesitated to denounce the FPJ candidacy? One reason is that we perceive FPJ as a decent person and we do not want to attack him personally. Of course, it does not make sense to attack him personally. That would be unfair. And it would only endear him even more to his movie fans. But 'Da King' has now become 'Da Candidate'. It is what FPJ represents as a candidate that has to be exposed. To do that we have to begin with 'Da King', with the cinematic myth that is FPJ's main vehicle to the presidency.

FPJ will win if people believe he will win. More than anything else that is the campaign line of the Koalisyon ng Nagkakaisang Pilipino (KNP). Sumama na kayo dahil seguradong panalo ang kandidato namin. Get on the bandwagon. Our candidate is a sure winner. This is based on nothing more than the assumption that FPJ's movie popularity is automatically translatable to votes. But there is no evidence that this is true because FPJ has never run for anything. The only way to test this before the May election is to compare him to other movie personalities, most importantly his bosom buddy Erap.

Because of the way Pilipino movies are made, the more popular actors get to shape their roles according to how they see themselves. Reel colonizes real. Joseph Estrada becomes Erap; FPJ, 'Da King'. Erap is the upper class man/boy who enjoys the company of kanto boys who love to drink, gamble, fool around with women. When Erap and his barkada see that oppression is too much, they say, "Tama na, sobra na" and they fight. Erap fights together with his lower class friends. He becomes not just their leader. He is their intermediary, a bridge across the class divide.

People equate FPJ and Erap. If Erap won elections because of his movie popularity, FPJ will also win. But FPJ's movie persona is radically different from that of Erap. Erap is quintessentially 'human'; flawed but willing to admit, even boast about his flaws. So it is easy for his fans to identify with him. The FPJ of his movies is the opposite. The Aguila, the Panday is 'supra-human'. He is a demigod, an archetype. He appears from out of nowhere, returns just as suddenly to god knows where . When he fights, he fights alone. People watch, but from hastily closed windows. I cannot imagine Erap agreeing to becoming a 'savior'. FPJ was reportedly persuaded to run for president by politicians because they convinced him that he is the only one who can 'save' the country.

FPJ's movie popularity apparently can be converted to votes if the surveys are to be believed. The question is whether the demigod FPJ image can stand the rough and tumble of campaign politics. The relationship between an actor and his fans happens in the darkness of a movie theater. A presidential candidate will be examined tooth and nail. The harsh light of political combat will focus on every aspect of his life. Even now, the campaign barely began, the media has focused on him more than on the other presidential candidates.

It appears that FPJ understands this problem. That's why he has so far chosen not to say very much. Demigods do not have platforms. They come from heaven with tablets of stone. The platform issue can probably be papered over by his advisers once they are identified. Besides, people do not pay attention to platforms in elections for the simple reason that voters know platforms are almost never followed. But if FPJ is made to appear simply incompetent, if he cannot do more than read prepared speeches, more and more people might turn away.

What could be more damaging are issues that show the santo has feet of clay. FPJ movies have no sex. The non-issue of FPJ's out-of-wedlock son, and reportedly two other daughters might be more damaging than his not knowing how the peso loses its value. Indian gods had lots of it, but can demigods in our Christian tradition have sex? Whether FPJ likes it or not, his personal life and habits will be trotted out for all to see. There is no such thing as a private, shy presidential candidate. Erap was not vulnerable to this kind of attack because he would just laugh them off. If FPJ gets obviously impatient, this will work against him.

FPJ and His Handlers

The FPJ camp would have us believe he is his own man. They are even circulating stories about his having chewed out Tito Sotto for making public statements without clearing it with him. This is the KNP's response to FPJ's gaping vulnerability: the company he keeps. The KNP's Senate slate says it all. It is made up of recycled Marcos cronies from Enrile, to Maceda, to Tatad. An attempt to distance FPJ from Erap backfired when FPJ ended up getting Jinggoy Estrada on his Senate slate after all. Even Jamby Madrigal and Boots Anson Roa have Marcos and Erap in their past.

Let's say it like it is. An FPJ presidency would restore the people behind both Marcos and Estrada. Remember? These are the two presidents we kicked out in Edsa 1 and EDSA 2. In all of our history, these two presidents are the most corrupt. Marcos still holds the record for human rights violations. There is a chance that after 18 years there will be a judicial accounting for Marcos-era crimes. Erap will likely be convicted of gross corruption. All this will be reversed if FPJ becomes president. What little we have achieved in our fight against human rights violations and corruption will be wiped out in an FPJ presidency.

We hesitate to use FPJ's lack of education and experience against him. We feel that doing so would somehow betray our rural and urban poor because they too do not have the education and experience. But they are not the ones running for president. They are not the ones who will have to preside over cabinet meetings to discuss monetary policy. It is obvious that FPJ does not understand even the basics of economic and other policies he will have to deal with as president. What will happen then is that the Marcos and Erap cronies who have decades of experience manipulating the government for their own ends will run rings around FPJ. An FPJ administration will be an Enrile-Maceda administration.

There is yet another aspect to a possible FPJ victory that we should worry about. When it was already clear that Erap would win in 1998, business was willing to factor him into their business plans. This time the markets are already indicating that an FPJ victory will result in a severe economic downturn. Media, academe, and church groups will subject a new FPJ administration to immediate criticism. This will create conditions that will tempt groups who are just waiting for an excuse to seize power through extra- constitutional means. How will a president who thinks of himself as a 'savior' react? 'Saviors' make poor democrats. They are easily tempted by authoritarian solutions.

Crisis and Reform

There are groups on the Left who are negotiating coalitions, varieties of accommodation with the KNP. They use "waiting for FPJ to tell them what his platform is" as a cover for discreet negotiations. Other more well-meaning individuals are helping to craft such a platform. But they all know that it is a rare politician who pays attention to platforms. The experience in the Erap administration does not exactly encourage thinking that progressives will be able to overcome the well-honed skills of the Enriles and Macedas to secure reform.

The ultra-Left CPP-NPA are maneuvering their way into an opportunistic alliance with FPJ. They couldn't care less if FPJ proves to be a disaster since they share the illusions of Simoun. 'Smashing the state' will be that much easier if FPJ begins the job. There are progressives who say we should not attack FPJ because 'the masses' who support him will then turn against the Left. By allowing FPJ to win as a populist candidate, the Left will perpetuate their distance from the very 'masses' they, not right wing populists like FPJ, should lead.

We are indeed deep in crisis. Our electoral system and form of government has lost its capacity to elect our leaders, to mobilize the requirements of governance and political reform in the coming years. I challenge those who support FPJ to explain how FPJ will lead us towards solutions to these severe problems. Whoever the real FPJ is, it is clear that he is being used by Marcos and Erap cronies to get back into power. Electing yet another movie actor, especially one without even the experience of his friend Erap, is not a solution. A President FPJ will push our crumbling political system over the brink.

Whoever we support for president, I believe that we should work together to prevent the looming disaster of an FPJ presidency. We have worked to make Marcos and Erap accountable for human rights violations and for corruption. We need to continue this work by preventing an FPJ presidency. We have worked for economic and political reform. We can only have these reforms in a future without a President FPJ. Decisions on who to support can be a matter of personal and organizational decisions. But preventing an FPJ presidency is work we have to do for our country, and for our people.

Joel Rocamora (joelroc@ipd.org.ph) is a Research Fellow at the Institute of Popular Democracy

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